Who will win the Dave Pasternack contest?

The deadline for the Dave Pasternack contest is about 2 weeks away. A look at Google today reveals the following rankings:

1. A New Yorker article talking about the Dave Pasternack.
2. A Clubcorp page on Dave Pasternack the Chef.
3. A Jamesbeard.org page on Chef Dave Pasternack.
4. The Technorati tag page for Dave Pasternack.
5. Dave Paasternack’s bio page at did-it.com.
6. The Threadwatch article announcing this contest.

The top 3 pages don’t have a lot of incoming links (according to Yahoo SiteExplorer), while the next 3 pages do have a growing number of links (although that number is fairly small — in the 100′s for the highest one). On the other hand, the first 3 pages all have a PR of 3, while the second 3 pages all have a PR of 0. So, in 2 weeks’ time, it’s doubtful that any of the 3 pages currently ranked 4-6 will overtake the top spot, especially given that the home page for the New Yorker site has a PR of 8.

So, which one will be on top come March 1st among the Technorati tag page, the did-it.com page, and the Threadwatch page? My guess is the Technorati tag page, since bloggers who are blogging about this are most likely serious about getting traffic to their site, and if they talk about this contest, they will use the Technorati tags; each time this happens, it’s one more link to the Technorati tag page.

Having said that, given the low number of incoming links (at least those visible to the search engines), I would not at all be surprised if someone comes along and decide to build massive links to a particular page that may not even exist yet and ends up winning the contest in 2 weeks.

I also want to point out something interesting: If you go to an international Google site such as Google Germany, Earnersblog is currently sitting at the top spot. No, Stuart from Earnersblog has not been blogging in German, or Spanish, or any of the other languages. He has blogged in English and translated it using the multilingual language plugin. While it did increase traffic to his blog significant, he also saw some of his pages started landing in Google’s supplemental index, so he decided to stop using it. Given this, the top positions he is holding at the international Google sites aren’t likely to stay. Otherwise, he could potentially put a claim to the $1,000 award by saying that his site is #1 in the most number of Google sites. :)